Letter to the editor
An interesting bulletin concerning December’s climate conference in Poland
noted that “…Australia sent 46 bureaucrats agreeing to shut down the remnants
of domestic industry…”
I am sure people will be thrilled with that as official, but largely unannounced,
government “policy” (the bureaucrats won’t make the undertaking unless told to
by their governmental superiors).
We already know that many of our industries have been off-shored, but the use
of the word remnants is particularly galling given that governments and
candidates always waffle the jobs, jobs, jobs mantra at election time whilst in full
knowledge of the fact that sufficient numbers of apprentices, managers, etc, have
never been trained, supposedly necessitating the importing of foreigners to do these tasks.
So we know, then, who the jobs are for, for for!
If this is not government dropping the ball, then “agreeing to shut down the remnants
of Australian industry” is an even worse insult and evidence, seemingly, that government
is not at all interested in creating opportunities for Australians.
Yes, NDIS jobs may have been moved to Geelong, but they are just pants-shiner jobs that
have been moved from somewhere else, and do not represent future export income
related to merchandise other countries might buy off us.
These jobs do not represent anything related to the usual catch-all phrase “Sustainable.”
And if “shutting down the remnants of Australian industry” is the future, then what, actually,
is the Future?
Climate Cargo Cult Circles the Pacific
By Viv Forbes
The World Economic Forum in 2015 had a prophetic vision that unless the world mends its wicked ways “global warming will become catastrophic and irreversible”.
In July 2016 the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, claimed that global warming was as dangerous to the world as Islamic terrorism.
At the recent G20 summit in China, the world leader of the Global Warming Religion, Ban Ki-moon, canonised two new cardinals – Cardinal Obama (who seeks political sainthood in his after-life), and Cardinal Xi Jinping (who seeks to crucify western industry on the climate cross). Both signed the Paris Pledge.
Then at the ASEAN Economic Forum, ordained Minister Turnbull of Australia joined worshippers to pray for a Saviour from Global Warming.
Global warming to hit Asia hardest – “Hundreds of millions of people are likely to lose their homes as flooding, famine and rising sea levels sweep the region.”
Finally, at the Pacific Island Forum in Vanuatu last week, the Global Warming service commenced with a rousing rendition of the hymn “Repent and Pay, or the Seas will Devour Us”.
As a sign of his devotion, Australia’s Global Warming Minister Turnbull dropped a cool $80M into the Global Warming Collection Plate. Islanders who truly believe will now receive total donations of A$300M from the pious Australian government.
John Kerry was right – this new Global Warming religion is spreading faster than radical Islam. It is the new Cargo Cult.
REALITY CHECK NEEDED BY CLIMATE DISCIPLES
Cosmic Cycles Control Climate
by Viv Forbes, Science writer
Those who think a war on carbon energy will lower Earth’s temperature need to study climate history.
Temperatures on Earth dance to a cyclical rhythm every hour, every day, every month, every season, every year, and to every beat of the sun-spot and glacial cycles.
These cycles interact to produce a wide range of ever-changing temperatures. Even at the same moment, temperatures vary dramatically from the equator to the poles and from the surface to the stratosphere. For would-be climate “managers” to claim they can calculate a mythical “global temperature” with precision greater than thermometers can measure is statistical nonsense.
It is even sillier for people who cannot accurately forecast next weekend’s weather to claim they can regulate the temperature of the globe by bashing industry and taxing carbon.
What is the role of carbon dioxide in climate? Al Gore did a great job to dramatise the recurring glacial cycles revealed by ice cores in his widely acclaimed work of science fiction. But he missed two inconvenient truths.
First, ice cores show that in the glacial spring-time the temperature rose BEFORE the CO2 levels rose. Therefore the rising CO2 cannot be a CAUSE of the warming – it is a RESULT of CO2 being expelled from the warming oceans.
Second, at the top of every warm cycle, high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere were unable to prevent Earth from cooling into the next cycle of ice.
We are fortunate to live in the Holocene Epoch, the latest warm phase of the Pleistocene Ice Age. The climate history of the Holocene, and its predecessor the Eemian, are well documented in ice core logs. These show that today’s warm Greenhouse Earth is probably nearing its end. It will be followed by Icehouse Earth.
There is no evidence in the climate records that carbon dioxide has a detectable effect on global temperatures. However if our continued use of cheap reliable hydro-carbon energy does slightly delay the onset of the next glacial winter, we and all life on Earth should count ourselves lucky.
Viv Forbes is a qualified geologist who has spent much of his life studying geological and climate history as written in the rocks. He has also spent several years in formal and private study of climatology and meteorology. He is the Founder of the Carbon Sense Coalition and a non-executive director of a small Australian company developing a coking coal mine.
By far the best reference book I have read on the above subjects is:
“The Inconvenient Skeptic” by John Kehr. This book is written in plain language, but full of sound science, well researched and referenced. I highly recommend it for those wishing to understand what drives our climate. (Hint: It is NOT carbon Dioxide.)
Another well-researched and easy-reading book on the long term cycles of ice ages and volcanism is:
“Not by Fire, but by Ice” by Robert Felix:
Original Research on Sunspots and Rainfall Cycles – Prof Will Alexander:
The Holocene Warmth as revealed by the Greenland Ice Cores:
The Eemian Warm Period was warmer than today:
Napoleon once said: “Only a foolish horse fights with his nose bag”
by Viv Forbes, Science Writer
But today we have many foolish people fighting their nose bag. They are weakening Earth’s food chain with a war on carbon.
Carbon is the building block of life. “Organic” means “containing carbon” and every bit of plant and animal life is built around the carbon atom.
Carbon enters Earth’s cycle of life via plants, which extract it from the rare and precious carbon dioxide plant-food in the atmosphere. Living things use
this carbon, plus water, oxygen and minerals, to create the proteins, fats, carbohydrates and skeletons they need.
Plant growth responds quickly to the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
See: CSIRO: Rising Carbon Dioxide causes greening of the deserts:
The Biosphere is booming: CO2 is the Cause:
However, today’s levels are far below those that sustained the abundant forests, grasslands, wetlands, herbivores and carnivores of past eras.
The biggest long term threat to abundant life on Earth is natural carbon sequestration, especially during the recurring cold dry eras when cooling oceans absorb huge amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and growing ice sheets capture most of its water.
Nature is very efficient at carbon capture and burial. Enormous quantities of carbon and hydrogen have been removed from past atmospheres and buried under ancient sediments in extensive beds of coal, oil shale, limestone, marble, dolomite and magnesite, and in diffuse deposits of hydrocarbon liquids and gases.
The result is that the carbon dioxide level in today’s atmosphere is not far above the minimum needed to sustain plant life (which is why nurserymen pump more carbon dioxide into their green-houses).
However, in a rare piece of environmental serendipity, man’s extraction and use of coal, oil, gas, limestone and dolomite for power generation, transport, aviation, steel, cement and fertilisers is recycling a tiny part of this storehouse of buried carbon. For example, for every tonne of coal burned, 2.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide plant food plus one tonne of fresh water is added to the atmosphere; and producing one tonne of cement releases about one tonne of carbon dioxide.
See: The ins and outs of coal combustion:
Every tonne of wheat grown needs a tonne of carbon dioxide to get its carbon, and other foods have similar needs. Carbon industries thus help to feed all of Earth’s plants and animals.
See: Should we celebrate CO2: http://www.thegwpf.com/28155/
Industrial use of carbon-bearing mineral resources also recycles valuable trace elements like nitrogen, sulphur and phosphorus which are present in variable amounts in coal, oil and carbonates. Any of these by-product gases can be toxic if concentrated in confined spaces, and all of man’s activities can pollute crowded cities, but in the open atmosphere, plant life often suffers because of a deficiency of these key nutrients.
Those waging a war on hydro-carbons and carbon dioxide are enemies of the biosphere. Their foolish policies like carbon taxes, emissions trading and “Carbon Capture and Burial” are denying essential nutrients to the food chain. The failed global warming forecasts show that these policies will have no effect on climate, but will reduce the atmospheric supply of food nutrients and fresh water for all life on Earth.
Life is a carbon cycle – don’t break the food chain.
Rosewood Qld Australia
Jennifer Marohasy The Australian September 29, 2015
For the true believer, it is too awful to even consider that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology could be exaggerating global warming by adjusting figures. This doesn’t mean, though, that it’s not true.
In fact, under prime minister Tony Abbott, a panel of eminent statisticians was formed to investigate these claims detailed in The Australian newspaper in August and September last year.
The panel did acknowledge in its first report that the bureau homogenised the temperature data: that it adjusted figures. The same report also concluded it was unclear whether these adjustments resulted in an overall increase or decrease in the warming trend.
No conclusions could be drawn because the panel did not work through a single example of homogenisation, not even for Rutherglen. Rutherglen, in northeastern Victoria, is an agricultural research station with a continuous minimum temperature record unaffected by equipment changes or documented site moves but where the bureau nevertheless adjusted the temperatures.
This had the effect of turning a temperature time series without a statistically significant trend into global warming of almost 2C a century.
According to media reports last week, a thorough investigation of the bureau’s methodology was prevented because of intervention by Environment Minister Greg Hunt. He apparently argued in cabinet that the credibility of the institution was paramount — that it was important the public had trust in the bureau’s data and forecasts, so the public knew to heed warnings of bushfires and cyclones.
Hunt defends the bureau because it has a critical role to play in providing the community with reliable weather forecasts.
This is indeed one of its core responsibilities. It would be better able to perform this function, however, if it used proper techniques for quality control of temperature data and the best available techniques for forecasting rainfall.
There has been no improvement in its seasonal rainfall forecasts for two decades because it uses general circulation models. These are primarily tools for demonstrating global warming, with dubious, if any, skill at actually forecasting weather or climate.
Consider, for example, the millennium drought and the flooding rains that followed in 2010.
Back in 2007 and 2008, David Jones, then and still the manager of climate monitoring and prediction at the Bureau of Meteorology, wrote that climate change was so rampant in Australia, “We don’t need meteorological data to see it”, and that the drought, caused by climate change, was a sign of the “hot and dry future” that we all collectively faced.
Then the drought broke, as usual in Australia, with flooding rains.
But the bureau was incapable of forecasting an exceptionally wet summer because such an event was contrary to how senior management at the bureau perceived our climate future.
So, despite warning signs evident in sea surface temperature patterns across the Pacific through 2010, Brisbane’s Wivenhoe dam, originally built for flood mitigation, was allowed to fill through the spring of 2010, and kept full in advance of the torrential rains in January 2011.
The resulting catastrophic flooding of Brisbane is now recognised as a “dam release flood”, and the subject of a class-action lawsuit by Brisbane residents against the Queensland government.
Indeed, despite an increasing investment in supercomputers, there is ample evidence ideology is trumping rational decision-making at the bureau on key issues that really matter, such as the prediction of drought and flood cycles. Because most journalists and politicians desperately want to believe the bureau knows best, they turn away from the truth and ignore the facts.
News Corp Australia journalist Anthony Sharwood got it completely wrong in his weekend article defending the bureau’s homogenisation of the temperature record. I tried to explain to him on the phone last Thursday how the bureau didn’t actually do what it said when it homogenised temperature time series for places such as Rutherglen.
Sharwood kept coming back to the issue of “motivations”. He kept asking me why on earth the bureau would want to mislead the Australian public.
I should have kept with the methodology, but I suggested he read what Jones had to say in the Climategate emails. Instead of considering the content of the emails that I mentioned, however, Sharwood wrote in his article that, “Climategate was blown out of proportion” and “independent investigations cleared the researchers of any form of wrongdoing”.
Nevertheless, the content of the Climategate emails includes quite a lot about homogenisation, and the scientists’ motivations. For example, there is an email thread in which Phil Jones (University of East Anglia) and Tom Wigley (University of Adelaide) discuss the need to get rid of a blip in global temperatures around 1940-44. Specifically, Wigley suggested they reduce ocean temperatures by an arbitrary 0.15C. These are exactly the types of arbitrary adjustments made throughout the historical temperature record for Australia: adjustments made independently of any of the purported acceptable reasons for making adjustments, including site moves and equipment changes.
Sharwood incorrectly wrote in his article: “Most weather stations have moved to cooler areas (ie, areas away from the urban heat island effect). So if scientists are trying to make the data reflect warmer temperatures, they’re even dumber than the sceptics think.”
In fact, many (not most) weather stations have moved from post offices to airports, which have hotter, not cooler, daytime temperatures. Furthermore, the urban heat island creeps into the official temperature record for Australia not because of site moves but because the record at places such as Cape Otway lighthouse is adjusted to make it similar to the record in built-up areas such as Melbourne, which clearly are affected by the urban heat island.
I know this sounds absurd. It is absurd, and it is also true. Indeed, a core problem with the methodology the bureau uses is its reliance on “comparative sites” to make adjustments to data at other places. I detail the Cape Otway lighthouse example in a recent paper published in the journal Atmospheric Research, volume 166.
It is so obvious that there is an urgent need for a proper, thorough and independent review of operations at the bureau. But it would appear our politicians and many mainstream media are set against the idea.
Evidently they are too conventional in their thinking to consider such an important Australian institution could now be ruled by ideology.
Jennifer Marohasy is a senior fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs.
‘The Forum considers that its own recommendations will deliver improvements to the management and communication of the ACORN-SAT dataset. There is a clear trend increase in both the raw and homogenised temperature data, and the temperature patterns exhibited in a variety of other datasets have a similar character. It is not currently possible to determine whether these improvements will be reflected in an increased or decreased warming trend that has been broadly observed across a range of different datasets.
Where Does the Carbon Dioxide Really Come From?
Professor Ian Plimer could not have said it better!
If you’ve read his book you will agree, this is a good summary.
PLIMER: “Okay, here’s the bombshell. The volcanic eruption in Iceland . Since its first spewing of volcanic ash has, in just FOUR DAYS, NEGATED EVERY SINGLE EFFORT you have made in the past five years to control CO2 emissions on our planet – all of you.
Of course, you know about this evil carbon dioxide that we are trying to suppress – it’s that vital chemical compound that every plant requires to live and grow and to synthesize into oxygen for us humans and all animal life.
I know….it’s very disheartening to realize that all of the carbon emission savings you have accomplished while suffering the inconvenience and expense of driving Prius hybrids, buying fabric grocery bags, sitting up till midnight to finish your kids “The Green Revolution” science project, throwing out all of your non-green cleaning supplies, using only two squares of toilet paper, putting a brick in your toilet tank reservoir, selling your SUV and speedboat,
vacationing at home instead of abroad. Nearly getting hit every day on your bicycle, replacing all of your 50 cent light bulbs with $10.00 light bulbs…..well, all of those things you have done have all gone down the tubes in just four days.
The volcanic ash emitted into the Earth’s atmosphere in just four days – yes, FOUR DAYS – by that volcano in Iceland has totally erased every single effort you have made to reduce the evil beast, carbon. And there are around 200 active volcanoes on the planet spewing out this crud at any one time – EVERY DAY.
I don’t really want to rain on your parade too much, but I should mention that when the volcano Mt Pinatubo erupted in the Philippines in 1991, it spewed out more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the entire human race had emitted in all its years on earth. Yes, folks, Mt Pinatubo was active for over one year – think about it.
Of course, I shouldn’t spoil this ‘touchy-feely tree-hugging’ moment and mention the effect of solar and cosmic activity and the well-recognized 800-year global heating and cooling cycle, which keeps happening despite our completely insignificant efforts to affect climate change.
And I do wish I had a silver lining to this volcanic ash cloud, but the fact of the matter is that the bush fire season across the western USA and Australia this year alone will negate your efforts to reduce carbon in our world for the next two to three years. And it happens every year.
Just remember that your government just tried to impose a whopping carbon tax on you, on the basis of the bogus ‘human-caused’ climate-change scenario.
Hey, isn’t it interesting how they don’t mention
‘Global Warming’ anymore, but just’Climate Change’- you know why? It’s because the planet has COOLED by 0.7 degrees in the past century and these global warming bull artists got caught with their pants down.
And, just keep in mind that you might yet have an Emissions Trading Scheme – that whopping new tax – imposed on you that will achieve absolutely nothing except make you poorer. It won’t stop any volcanoes from erupting, that’s for sure.
But, hey, relax…… and have a nice day :>)”
Adelaide has woken to its coldest August morning since 1888, when South Australia was still a separate colony, with the mercury dipping to just 0.9C, 7C below the month’s average.
It was also the coldest morning in the city in six years.
The cool temperatures come in the wake of a very strong cold front that came through late last week and even brought snow to the Adelaide Hills.
Weatherzone Meteorologist Brett Dutschke told 9NEWS.com.au the chill was partly due to clear skies and such light winds.
Temperatures did get below freezing in some northern suburbs this morning, while parts of the north of the state got colder than -5C.
Adelaide is expected to have a similar morning tomorrow, with widespread frost, but it should get warmer as the week continues.
Low temperatures turn The Riverland into a winter wonderland. (supplied)
Carbon-centric climate models fail consistently
In 2007 a computer model predicted that the Arctic would be free of ice by 2013. But in 2013, Arctic ice was abundant.
Two years ago the massive UK government computer model predicted that “drought was the new normal”. And a recent UK Met Office forecast was that this winter would be drier than normal. Just two months later, the UK suffered huge floods.
Here in Australia, former Climate Commissioner Flannery is famed for his frequent failed forecasts on droughts and sea levels. The Gore Effect is equally infamous – it produces snow wherever Big Al delivers another sermon on the fire and brimstone that awaits us if the wicked world keeps using demon carbon fuels.
There is no measurable evidence that carbon dioxide (CO2) controls global warming. In fact it may be the reverse – ocean temperature controls atmospheric CO2. We know that the massive oceans do slowly expel and absorb CO2 as water temperature rises and falls. Moreover, all five global temperature datasets show zero global warming since 1997 despite an increase of at least 40% in man’s CO2 emissions during that period.
All western governments have done massive damage to their economies and their electricity generators and consumers by putting their faith in computer models based on one fragile assumption – that future global temperatures are determined mainly by the miniscule levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. They compound this error by assuming that water vapour feedback will multiply any warming effect from carbon dioxide. In fact, water probably plays a negative temperature-moderating role.
Fed with false input assumptions of ever-rising carbon dioxide and magnified with positive water feedbacks, the models naturally produce output forecasts with a chronic warm bias, all of which have proved wrong. Garbage in, garbage out.
Honest weather forecasters never claim reliability beyond a few days. To believe that a mechanistic computer model can produce useful predictions for decades ahead shows that zealotry has replaced scientific prudence in too many circles.
Climate variables never continue along straight-line trends – all are affected by cycles and oscillations in Earth’s orbit, sun-spots, cosmic rays, ocean currents, cloud cover, volcanic activity and the solar system. Practical forecasters have long recognised these cyclic influences, and some show skill in projecting them.
The sun is the chief driver of Earth’s climate oscillations, and it is now in a quiet phase. It is time to reject the failed projections of carbon-centric climate models, restore our battered economies and prepare our infrastructure for whatever surprises the real climate has in store.
Rosewood Qld Australia
Viv Forbes is a science graduate, geologist, farmer, Chairman of the Carbon Sense Coalition and has spent a lifetime studying climate, weather and the science of carbon.
If you would like to read more see: