From Macrobusiness
The policy process in Canberra is broken.
The government of the day refuses to budge on any national interest reform that threatens vested interests.
As the polity grows increasingly agitated due to this inaction, the vested interests realise that their social license to operate is under attack. Over time, it is a risk they cannot ignore.
This forces Canberra to move because even the vested interests it protects become alarmed by deteriorating community support.
Canberra then follows vested-interest reform suggestions.
This produces the bare minimum “fake” reform designed to douse the fire of community anger, rather than properly restructuring whatever the problem is.
Then rinse and repeat.
Australia’s gas policy failures highlight these dynamics.
After a decade of destroying the East Coast economy, the LNG export cartel has recently campaigned to reform itself, and Albo’s cowards are following.
…Labor is trying to navigate a line between the demands of struggling manufacturers and the gas industry. Some manufacturers want the government to forcefully divert gas from Asian LNG export markets and implement price controls. But the gas industry argues such measures could deter investment in new supply, or interfere with valuable long-term LNG export contracts.
“A direct export permit system would target the exporters who actually created this shortage,” [AWU] Farrow said.
…Gas industry sources said on Friday that the government appeared to be considering two options for the design of a reservation system.
They said one was a permitting system for LNG exports—imposed on APLNG, Shell’s QCLNG venture and Santos’ GLNG–that would be tied to obligations to supply the domestic market.
A second option involves a broader system that would also cover producers which only supply the domestic market. That would be more complex but offer more flexibility to exporters to meet their domestic obligations.
A third option could be a hybrid system, they said, adding they expected a high-level announcement from Labor, with the details to be determined next year.
…That “Goldilocks” amount could be 30 petajoules a year of additional supply, according to analysis by adviser EnergyEdge, which found that would lower wholesale gas prices by more than $2 a gigajoule, representing a reduction across NSW, Victoria and Queensland of 17 to 21 per cent. That would represent an increase of about 6% in the 500-petajoule domestic east coast market.
A 20% price drop is a joke. This reduces the spot price to about $11Gj and the wholesale manufacturing price to $15Gj. Neither is economic.
Both approaches have the same problem.
The LNG export cartel will seek to buy up gas producers and acreage so they appear to own the gas rather than taking it from the broader market. They can then juggle the portfolio of gas to ensure the cheapest goes offshore and the most expensive stays in Australia.
The ACCC has proven to be an inept policeman of such consolidation. This is why the LNG export cartel already owns 90% of East Coast reserves.
The situation highlights the fundamental issue with the export permit system: it fails to address the lack of competition.
Whatever reform path is chosen, it must force producers to sell their gas locally at lower prices.
Peter Dutton’s excellent reservation proposal did this by threatening the cartel with export levies if they did not deliver a 20% surplus to local needs.
Albo’s cowards are ignoring this, so the cartel must allow the policy to work. This is either imbecilic or corrupt.
A better approach is to recognise that the market has failed and treat it as the monopoly it is.
The approach involves applying Dutton’s export levies outright.
If the government levies 100% on every export dollar above a $7Gj threshold, the local price will always reflect that amount, regardless of the cartel’s actions. Indeed, it will incentivise making up for lost margin in higher volumes for export and local distribution.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/11/and-now-for-fake-gas-reservation/?
Except for the WA gov of the day back in 1979, the ‘gas reservation policy’ horse seems to have done a bolt in1973 when PM Whitlam signed Australia over to the foreign: UNIDROIT Treaty of Rome, handing the Equitable Title of the mineral and energy wealth of Australia to a “foreign power”, head office Rome.
https: //cirnow.com.au/corporate-government-no/
In other words, their hands are tied by prior agreements.
What the public sees is a farcical pantomine. Don’t buy lies.
Everytime I see a politician on TV attempting to answer dumb questions without stepping on a net zero landmine or DEI bobbytrap, I’m reminded of someone doing a Riverdance routine. The best routines follow dumb questions by ‘Maximus Interruptus’ (David Speers) and the ‘Sherman Tank of Blunt’ ( Sarah Ferguson).
Governments have become anti-democratioc and pro-theft of tax-payers money. The progressively anti-democratic and anti-human tilt, has to end now. Otherwise it will just get incrementally worse. Politics has become all about personal aggrandisement, with all established parties permeated by personal interest only.
… and some still don’t see the media turned on Morrison so we’d vote him out and the weakest leader in our history installed by default.
Spin, rinse, repeat.
In Western Australia the Dampier to Bunbury pipeline is about 1500km long and 600mm diameter, it has nowhere near the number of customers of the parallel area on the east coast but it does the job. Queensland has lots of gas so they may as well use it and the CO2 will help the plants to grow, but the governments sold all the gas to China, that’s why you need to go “NettZero” on the east coast. The gas money to China pays for the bank interest the politicians pay to Swissy’s BIS operation here ( the RBA and other lenders ) for their pork-barrelling. Swissy is funding sports clubs galore, super-dummm stuff like Carbon Capture & Storage, dodgy Chinese windmills and NDIS ripoffs.
Here we have lots of solar panels on rooves but you need gas to fill in the gaps when a cloud goes over and you need coal for winter and night. Politicians can’t understand this because they can’t understand simple science, they only understand lobbyists. All of our problems come from the dishonest politicians of the UnaParty including the Green and Teal offshoots, and their propaganda arm the ABC-TV.
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It is a replay of what is happening in Europe. Destroy local industry by exporting cheap coal and gas energy. In Europe, they accomplish the same goal by stopping the import of cheap Russian gas and oil. The objective is the same in both cases. The winners are India, China and the USA.
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