TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14, Bureau Of Meteorology
Issued at 4:50 pm EST on Tuesday 12 December 2023
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR443.loop.shtml
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Jasper, Category 2 strength, is expected to impact the Far North Queensland coast overnight and during Wednesday morning.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Cape Melville to Lucinda, including Cairns and Innisfail and extending inland to include Chillagoe and Palmerville
Watch Zone
None
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Jasper at 4:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 15.9 degrees South 147.7 degrees East, estimated to be 235 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 385 kilometres north northeast of Townsville.
Movement: northwest at 9 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Jasper, currently a category 2 system, is moving towards the coast. Gales are likely to start on the coast from late this evening or during the early morning. Destructive wind gusts may be experienced on the coast before dawn or later in the morning. There is a small chance that Jasper will intensify to Category 3 prior to landfall. Jasper will weaken as it moves inland during Thursday towards the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Hazards:
Locally INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is forecast to develop from Wednesday morning along the coast and adjacent ranges between Cape Flattery and Port Douglas as well as areas near the centre of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Isolated six-hourly rainfall totals between 250 to 300 mm are likely with 24-hourly totals between 400 to 500 mm possible.
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is also forecast to develop between Cape Flattery and Ingham. Six-hourly rainfall totals between 100 to 150 mm are likely, with isolated falls up to 250 mm along the coast and adjacent ranges. 24-hourly rainfall totals between 150 to 250 mm are likely, with isolated falls up to 350 mm possible.
DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts of up to 140 km/h may develop between Wujal Wujal and Innisfail, including Cairns from early Wednesday morning.
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of up to 120 km/h are expected to develop along the Queensland coast and adjacent ranges between Cape Flattery and Lucinda, including Cairns late Tuesday or early Wednesday. These DAMAGING WINDS are likely to extend inland as far as Palmerville and Chillagoe after the cyclone has crossed the coast on Wednesday.
GALES with DAMAGING WINDS may extend as far north as Cape Melville on Wednesday, depending on the movement of Jasper.
A flood watch is current for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Country.
As the cyclone approaches the coast, a STORM TIDE is expected between Cooktown and Lucinda on the high tides today and Wednesday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.
DO NOT ENTER FLOODED CROSSINGS
Just heard on news that there is very serious flooding up north… The cyclone is well and truly gone but there is a rain blob hovering over the region – similar to the one that caused major flooding in Brisbane not that long ago.
Does anyone know anything about this… Are they mucking with the weather there or what
Well I think the people will be fine, they all seem to have a fridge full of booze…lol Its only a Cat 1 at present though there will probably be lots of rain and wind. If it was a Katrina, now that would be a huge worry.
I think the media ramps up the fear a bit .. as per usual.
The way the state government is going there won’t be a prawn season
The very quiet cyclone seasons we’ve enjoyed in recent years have been an artefact of the “modern warm period.”
The mildly active sun has delivered a larger quantity of energetic particles and electromagnetism to Earth than it does when it’s quieter.
These primarily penetrate Earth’s magnetosphere at its weakest points, the poles, which raises their temperatures and reduces the temperature differential between the poles and the equator.
It is that temperature differential which promotes cyclone formation.
The fuel for cyclones is, of course, the latent heat of condensation, however their initiation is not the Coriolis effect as mainstream climate wrongologists believe but is the result of the global electric circuit, which travels upwards from low pressure systems to the ionosphere and back downwards to the ground through high pressure systems.
All electromagnetic systems rotate and that rotational energy is imparted to the water.
The cyclonic rotation begins in the water, not the air.
The global electric circuit derives its energy from solar Birkeland current streams.
A quieter sun raises the temperature differential between the poles and the equator but is still linked to earth with Birkeland currents, which is why cyclones were more frequent and more intense when it was cooler.
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Hopefully it does not intensify and everyone in the areas mentioned will remain safe.
On the bright side if it dumps a lot of water upstream that will flush the rivers of the prawns for the next season .