Monday March 3, 2026
By David Llewellyn Smith, https://macrobusiness.cmail20.com/t/i-e-ztyfc-ilwkhydtj-r/
Oil is up 18% at $109 this morning.
Goldman reckons oil is going higher. The analysis highlights rapidly rising upside risks to oil prices from a severe disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The base case forecast previously assumed Brent crude in the low $80s in March and the high $70s in the second quarter, based on the expectation that shipping flows through the Strait would gradually normalise. However, recent developments suggest Goldman’s assumptions were wrong.
First, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed dramatically. Current estimates indicate that flows are down by about 18 million barrels per day, leaving only around 10% of normal volumes moving through the Strait.
Second, the ability to redirect oil exports through alternative routes has been far more limited than expected.
Third, industry feedback indicates that shipping companies are taking a cautious approach because of the physical risks in the Strait. The key deterrent is the security risk of operating in the Strait.
Fourth, the scale of the supply shock is unprecedented. The estimated 17.1 million barrels per day hit by Persian Gulf supply are roughly 17 times larger than the peak disruption to Russian production in 2022. Such a large shock could lead markets to price in demand destruction more quickly than in past crises, especially as hoarding behavior and reduced exports of refined products accelerate inventory depletion.
Without progress on these fronts, Goldman reckons oil prices could exceed $100 in the near term and potentially surpass the peaks seen in 2008 and 2022, particularly if disruptions persist through March.
In my view, this is far too optimistic. The all-time peak price for oil was in 2008 at $148. I believe we will reach $150 per barrel within days if nothing changes in the war.
Indeed, in my view, markets are drastically underestimating what is about to happen.
If oil were at $150 over two years, we could address the 17m/bd shortfall through demand destruction and a shift to alternative energy.
But over two weeks, the kind of demand destruction needed to rebalance the oil market after a 17 mb/d shortfall will require a price so high that it will shut down entire economies overnight. I don’t know what this price is. It might be $500 per barrel. It might be $1000 per barrel. It might be $10k per barrel. The needed price is clearly depressionary.
Any sovereign that can avoid this outcome will. That will mean that any sovereign that has enough oil to keep its economy running will keep it at home.
This includes the US.
So trade in oil will collapse in short order as well.
Not only is a scarcity shock about to hit oil, but a sovereign security shock is about to hit it as well.
Australia has one month of fuel reserve. It will disappear much more quickly than that when the hoarding panic starts. We will be at the forefront of global demand destruction.
The $10 petrol price in the title of this post is not a forecast. It is a risk if Trump gets this wrong (which he does more often than not). Equally, it could be a $3 or $35 peak price. But every day that goes by, the price risk goes up exponentially.
Broad analysis today reminds me of the lazy response to COVID in its early days, when markets thought it was a sniffle and authorities would be rational; governments would do nothing, and it would all blow over.
Then, one day, everything shut down, everywhere.
It is imperative for Trump to withdraw from this conflict immediately. He has made a huge mistake because Israel told him to, making the Straits so impassable that he is now considering boots on the ground.
He has put the entire global economy at risk of a shock so large as to be difficult to imagine, potentially leading to 1970s inflation, a job apocalypse, and the crashing of international markets.
The aftermath will begin this week and escalate very quickly as Gulf oil shut-ins accelerate.
The best course of action is to adopt the Kissinger exit strategy, which involves appearing to bomb more heavily than ever in order to maintain face, while actually preparing to withdraw, thereby leaving the Iranian Republican Guard in control of the Straits. So reopening it to all must be part of the secret deal.
Dithering about ideas of running Iran, choosing its leaders, seizing uranium stockpiles are all boys’ own fantasies. They will take too long. In two weeks, oil will have to begin pricing for the apocalypse.
Does the American Madman have this realpolitik advice coming from anybody in his circle of clowns, or is he so in thrall to Tel Aviv that he will abandon this pointless war too late?
Fill your car and jerrycans with petrol, and pull that old shotgun out of storage.
Thinking About the Unthinkable: Iran’s Grand Plan to End U.S. Presence in the Middle East.
By Prof Michael Hudson
Global Research, March 12, 2026.
Excerpt >
Collateral effects of Iran’s goal to drive the United States out of the Middle East.
Iran will escalate as Israel and the U.S. military exhaust their supply of anti-aircraft and missile defense, enabling Iran to launch its serious attack on a scale that it stopped short of last June when it agreee to a ceasefire. It will start using its most sophisticated missiles to attack Israel and other U.S. proxies.
There’s nowhere to put additional Arab oil production now that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to all but its own ships, most of which are carrying oil destined for China. The storage tanks are full, with nowhere to save new production, which therefore has been forced to stop. And as for liquified natural gas, which is exported mainly by Qatar, its LNG gas works have been bombed. They will have to be rebuilt, which will take two weeks plus an equal time to put them back on line by cooling this gas properly.
In any case, no ships are even trying to approach Hormuz, because Lloyds of London is not issuing insurance policies. The U.S. military has recently sunk or seized Russian ships carrying oil, but the soaring oil prices have led it to permit such transfers in order to stem the world inflation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the Treasury Department is examining whether additional sanctioned Russian crude shipments could be released to the market. “We may unsanction other Russian oil,” he said. “There are hundreds of millions of barrels of sanctioned crude on the water … by unsanctioning them, Treasury can create supply.” His remarks follow a U.S. decision to issue a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil in an effort to maintain global supply.
Throughout the world, rising oil and gas prices will force economies to choose between having to cut back domestic social spending in order to pay their dollar debts. This war is splitting the US/NATO West from the Global Majority, by creating strains that Japan, Korea and even Europe no longer can afford. The chaotic effect of the U.S. attack has destroyed the narrative that has enabled U.S. diplomats to demand subsidy and “burden sharing” for its global military spending. The predicate fiction is that the world needs U.S. military support to protect it against Russia and China, and now Iran, as if these countries pose a real threat to Europe and Asia.
But instead of protecting the rest of the world by waging the present Cold War the chaos in world oil and gas markets resulting from its attack on Iran show that the United States actually is the greatest threat to the security, stability and prosperity of its allies.
Its attack has fallen largely on its closest allies – Japan, South Korea and Europe. Their gas prices have soared by 20% and are now on their way further upward today. Korea’s stock market has plunged 18% in the last two days. All this is shifting support for removing U.S. control of Near Eastern oil and reorienting it to a market free from U.S. demands for control and dollarization of the world’s energy trade.
See full article >
https://www.globalresearch.ca/thinking-about-the-unthinkable-irans-grand-plan-to-end-u-s-presence-in-the-middle-east/5918626
I remember back in the 1989ies or so, a truck driver friend used to say that on occasions he’d give a ride to Moonie (Western Qld) oil-men hitch-hikers who always said “There’s lots of oil there but it’s not to be made public, sealed.” Australia could be self sufficient but it’s not allowed. Environmentalists played their part too.
This article is straight out of the Cabarl’s playbook. I’m amazed that the Cairn’s News would even publish such trash.
Lifeblood of Industry: Why Sulfur is the Single-Point Failure You Never Saw Coming
Sulfuric acid is the irreplaceable ‘lifeblood’ of modern industrial civilization. No single chemical has a more urgent, cascading impact across every critical sector. Upwards of 85% of elemental sulfur is converted into this vital acid [3]. Its primary, non-negotiable use is in the production of phosphate fertilizers. Without sulfur, there is no fertilizer. Without fertilizer, there is no food on an industrial scale. This is not a hypothetical supply chain hiccup; it is a guaranteed trigger for mass starvation.
The crisis was engineered long before the first missile struck. Decades of political pushes for so-called ‘green energy’ have actively driven a shortage of sulfuric acid by demonizing the fossil fuels from which over 80% of global sulfur is derived as a byproduct of desulfurization [4]. This misguided war on hydrocarbon energy has systematically weakened our chemical resilience, making this collapse not just possible but inevitable. The secondary uses of sulfuric acid are what weave the fabric of modern life: it is essential for leaching critical metals like copper, zinc, and nickel from ore [5]; for the vulcanization of rubber in every car and truck tire; for producing battery acid; and for manufacturing life-saving antibiotics, industrial explosives, and synthetic textiles [3]. Every one of these chains is now broken.
The First Domino: Fertilizer Famine and the Coming Global Starvation
With sulfur supplies at absolute zero, global phosphate fertilizer production has effectively halted. Experts are not merely concerned; they are witnessing the unfolding of an engineered famine. This is not about crop yields dropping a manageable 10-20%. Yields could crater 30% or more, and that is the optimistic projection for the next growing season. Global starvation on a scale of hundreds of millions is likely unless this war is ended immediately.
This is a plot of biological and economic warfare, dwarfing the kinetic casualties of the conflict itself. The attack on chemical infrastructure is an attack on the very biological capacity of the human species to feed itself. As one analysis notes, ‘close to half of global sulphur exports are potentially delayed by the conflict,’ and the duration of the attacks means this delay is permanent [6]. The global fertilizer market is in total disruption, with prices reacting violently and supplies tightening to nothing [7]. The mainstream narrative of a ‘manageable disruption’ is a dangerous lie. The reality is a fertilizer famine that will hollow out global grain bins within a single season….’ more at
h ttps://www.naturalnews.com/2026-03-09-global-sulfur-crisis-the-chemical-achilles-heel.html
A few years back I saw a video of former Malaysian Prime Minister Dr. Mohatir Bin Mohammad (not sure if that is right, sounds right), now/was the CEO of one of the UN-affiliated NGO’s speaking at something like the WEF. He said something like ‘7 billion people will starve but at least they will get the peace of the grave!’. I have been wondering how they could actually pull that off ever since, the strait of Hormuz closure with the cost of fuel, causing mass inflation on everything else and the loss of fertilizer for at least a few seasons (which will probably cost 100’s of millions of lives if crops fall just 30%)…Food will come with its own inflationary pressures. Countries will stop exporting…Many other industries are reliant on sulphur/sulphuric acid, not just farmers.
This is a good article for once from Mike Adams “Global Sulfur Crisis: The Chemical Achilles Heel of Modern Civilization Has Been Severed” at naturalnews
Hope for the best…PREPARE FOR THE WORST!
Global Sulfur Crisis: The Chemical Achilles Heel of Modern Civilization Has Been Severed
h ttps://www.naturalnews.com/2026-03-09-global-sulfur-crisis-the-chemical-achilles-heel.html
“The devastating attacks on critical Gulf infrastructure have not merely disrupted markets; they have severed the global supply of elemental sulfur and its derivative, sulfuric acid. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows — coupled with the systematic destruction of storage and refining facilities in Iran, means zero spot sulfur is available on the global market [1]. This is not a crisis about to begin; it has already been unleashed. The chemical cascade of industrial collapse is now irreversible.
Reports of thick, choking smoke over Tehran following strikes on oil facilities are a grim foreshadowing of the acid rain and atmospheric poisoning to come, but they pale in comparison to the economic and biological warfare now underway [2]. Maritime insurance has been withdrawn, tanker rates have spiked over 200%, and with war risk premiums making transit financially impossible, the flow of all commodities through the region has ceased [1]. The window for averting catastrophic, multi-industry failure is not merely closing; it has slammed shut….”
Prices are going to rise! The collapse of civilisation has begun! Grow your veggies and go get some chooks! This very much involves fertiliser…they pulled the trigger, Trump and Bibi.
Can anyone clarify whether the incident I outline here did occur?
Yesterday when this article was printed there was a decision made by the stupid NSW Gov to not refill farm bowsers but apparently this was later rescinded by the Gov due to heavy pushback on talkback radio.
If govs are prepared to do this then we are finished as a nation.
Time to crank up Shell Oil refinery in Geelong as we have our own oil in Bass Strait and Moonie in Queensland.
And keep it here not ship it out…
Penny Wong said that electric vehicles will save the day during fuel shortages.
Have ComCars coverted to become electric yet ?
I can’t see them being popular outside any metropolitan area out there in the bush .
In 1953 Winston Churchill got wind that the very popular PM of Iran was going to nationalise Iran’s oil to stop foreigners plundering their country and Iran getting little in return so Churchill conspired with the CIA to pull off a coup to replace the PM with the Shah of Iran who then brutalized his people until they had enough of him in 1979 they had their revolution but what they didn’t plan for was an Islamic government who has brutalized them ever since .
This will make the Venezuelan’s very financial
In the 80’s during oil exploration in central Australia a green petroleum substance was found that did not need refining and could be poured straight into fuel tanks to run diesel engines .
There are reserves of oil in a lot of locations both inland and offshore so why are we importing ?
Electrical Vehicles (microwaves on wheels!) will likely be promoted/ pushed as the solution, due to increasing fuel costs etc.
𝐓𝐄𝐒𝐋𝐀 𝐄𝐕 𝐑𝐀𝐃𝐈𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐀𝐑𝐄 ❞𝐎𝐅𝐅 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐂𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐓❞
📌 https://old.bitchute.com/video/pQaXchPzpzXg/
This is the result of another “Banker’s War”, to set up the Reserve Bank of Iran. As General Wesley Clark said, “wars in 7 countries, over 5 years!” Now running a bit behind schedule, but predicted, never-the-less.
The Federal and States Governments have chosen to rely on Market Forces to meet Australia’s transport fuel needs. She’ll be right, mate! Their focus on “Net Zero” has occupied the tiny minds of policy makers, in the same way someone said “we don’t need Farmers, we have plenty of Supermarkets!”
It may come as a bit of a shock to the PM and other jetsetters, when Aviation Fuel is in short supply, or unavailable. Defence stocks maybe available to fill the gaps, to create limited supplies of Sustainable Aviation Fuel for the RAAF VIP Squadron. Until that happens, it is unlikely that our politicians will feel enough pain to spring into action.
Fuel for the Army and Navy operation will be limited also, if the situation in the Straits of Hormuz continues. So forget about relief missions for our Pacific Island neighbors and disaster-prone areas of Australia.
The frustrating part about all of this situation is that the Australian Governments were warned about the possibility of supply issues for over 10 years and have failed to even consider contingency plans.
Remember the message “Without Truckers, Australia STOPS”.
We might get LUCKY again and everything will be back to normal on Monday.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s single-most important energy corridor, and there’s no alternative route. The US Energy Information Administration clearly states that more than 40% of global oil exports (around 21 million barrels) transit the Strait daily along with 33% of the global daily LNG supply.
During the first oil shock in 1973 about 9% of the daily global oil supply – 5 billion barrels – disappeared & the oil price quadrupled. With 21 million barrels per day vanishing it could be said to expect a price increase of between 8 – 12 times the price before the start of the current upward increase.
Calls have been put out by experts of up to $300 per barrel HOWEVER, now that the Suez Canal is also closed due to the Houthi’s threatening traffic on the Red Sea & also as well as this, a large number of critically important refineries have been blown up by missiles including both the main refineries in Israel & Iran it means that the $10 per litre call is only a start to what is coming so for heavens sake the peoples had better get ready because our greedy governments are about to bring in crazy rationing the likes of which we have never before seen. This really is beyond tragic so tell your friends to be prepared for all eventualities. The situation is only going to get dramatically very very much worse.
re: “This is going to hurt China more than most”
I would have to disagree. The worst affected will be Europe which has jaksht resources and has been slated for collapse ever since it was set up by the US Neocon brigade to ditch Russia and its cheap energy.
But from the current, shambolic” EU setup will emerge a US of Europe, with a tight central economic, political and military control centre in the hands of guess who!!!!
The US of Europe will end up a complete vassal mega state which it was envisaged being since before WW1 and WW2, which wars of course have brought Europe to what it is today. Just another bunch of pbricks in the wall.
China, being part of BRICS which is being set up for the next century of growth and development before it is ultimately razed in favour of a reincarnated West when its growth cycle is exhausted, China will of course get any oil shortfalls from Russia and Asia, and when the dust settles, from its international masters who built it into a global industrial behemoth surpassing even the US as their colonial and military enforcer.
There’s nothing like the Crown for picking them up and setting them down. It’s a historical capitalist imperative. Empires don’t die, they’re merely morphed and renamed to keep the cycle rolling. It used to be tested and applied to individual countries (Argentina, Japan, etc) but is now trans continental in application.
This is going to hurt China more than most, with both now its cheap Venezuelan and Iranian supplies disrupted.
Sounds like a leftard panic merchant. If the writer wants credibility, facts not name calling works, also he may wish to take a look at the alternative his blinkered retreat scenario means. Yes we will have pain for a while, but if we, here Refer to the free world, do not end this barbaric regime once and for all, the long term pain may be the destruction of our entire way of life, or is that what the writer wants?
That is a good comment by Hapless Jo Blow. 3 days ago I saw a woman driving a horse & cart with a dog sitting beside her. Such scenes will be more commonplace within a year or two = so grab a cart while you can because before years end they will be difficult to source.
This link is only 4.25 minutes in length. It explains the real reason for the War. There are so many people behind the scenes who call the shots & unfortunately nearly all who stand up to them are killed asap & Alas we are in for terrible destruction globally never before seen.
Fuel will hit such a very high level that at a certain point in the near future the ordinary person will not be able to get it OR be able to get it only sparingly such as once in a blue moon.
https://www.brighteon.com/4ee272d2-ead9-4f1a-b0f4-eed713572b39
Trump made a mistake?
Unlikely, since he doesn’t really care for the american people, but to serve the interests of Israel first & foremost.
fuel prices are contrived manipulated and Iran supplies has zero bearing on Australian supply line
Do your proper research before writing such an ill informed statement or you’ll be left very red faced during this year.
Have no fear – POTUS is the non-Jewish Messiah according to Rabbi Issen Zelma. So the Holy War USrail is waging against The Great Satan Iran is a Good Cause – and it might bring on The Rapture
…….
https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/2030118332062392492
To David A.
A single unemployed person deserves to pay 78% – 100% of their dole payment on rent. They voted for a gov that introduced taxpayers subsidies (negative gearing and capital gains) to private property investors. They voted for a gov that opened the immigration floodgates to guarantee demand for rental properties. As Thomas Jefferson wrote, “The government you elect is the government you deserve.”
Soon you will be paying $10 per litre for fuel. That is your fault as you didn’t prepare by stockpiling fuel in jerry cans.
Don’t like it? Then vote with rope but Aussies won’t do anything because:
Aussies = bovine.
{ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrGpUyvEUYw }
“Iran Just Gave the World 4 Hours Before a Massive Energy Attack ”
Yay, Trumpstein! The coming fuel shortages and prices might just make our forced co-vid lockdowns look like a picnic. Anybody know where we can get a donkey or a camel for transport? Top price paid.. Oh, and some missiles to keep the crims from mugging us and stealing it?
How is a single long-term unemployed person ‘living’ on $64 a day supposed to afford a $700 fuel bill every f/night when already 78% – 100% of their dole payment is going to pay rent???
Australia gets the bulk of its liquid fuel from Singaporean mega-refineries, not the Middle East.
Two of the NRMA reports, from 2013 and 2014, both of which I sent to Richard Marles and Kevin Rudd in 2014, to no reply.
Marles and Albo are notorious for not reading their briefs.
https://raafsca.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/sub18_nrma_attch1.pdf
https://irp-cdn.multiscreensite.com/772f65eb/files/uploaded/NRMA%20Fuel-Security-Report-Pt2.pdf
The government’s main Constitutionally contracted obligation is “.”to protect life and property.
Therefore, all taxes on fuel should be foregone, and our Singaporean supply routes ensured.