Ex-CIA adviser says Ukraine losing badly in war against Russia

The Daily Reckoning

It’s extremely difficult to find the truth about the war in Ukraine. The first reason for this is because… it’s a war. Wars are always difficult to gauge in real-time. The phrase “fog of war” was invented to convey the uncertainty and imprecision about the progress of any particular war.

Still, there’s another reason the war in Ukraine is confusing for so many. It’s because the Ukrainian propaganda effort is one of the most astonishingly effective concoctions of lies ever seen.

From the “Ghost of Kyiv” fighter ace to the “Heroes of Snake Island” to wildly exaggerated claims of Russian casualties to the suppression of any news that reflects badly on Ukraine, the Ukrainian propaganda machine has been firing on all cylinders.

This might be expected given that President Zelenskyy is a former actor and comedian. He’s used to the media stage and making up scenes for the audience. Zelenskyy is backed up by a small army of media advisers and amplified by sympathizers including President Biden, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and outlets like The New York Times.

Courage Under (Phony) Fire

The latest propaganda stunt was Joe Biden’s trip to Kyiv a few days before the first anniversary of the Russian invasion. Biden made a canned speech, authorized another $500 million in weapons and hopped back onto a train to Poland.

The propaganda pièce de résistance was when Biden and Zelenskyy walked into an open courtyard and the Kyiv air raid sirens began blaring. The Russians had been advised in advance that Biden would be there, and they agreed not to stage any raids during Biden’s visit.

In fact, there had been no raids for some time. No one saw any planes, drones or missiles. The sirens were just a stage effect intended to create a false sense of danger to be picked up as a soundtrack by global media. Ukraine is losing the war badly but you can’t blame Westerners for believing otherwise. They’re all victims of the Zelenskyy-Ukraine propaganda machine.

What about the sanctions? How are they working out? U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia because of Ukraine have been worse than a complete failure. They have failed to change Russia’s behavior, have failed to hurt Russia’s economy in a material way and have boomeranged to hurt the U.S., Europe and many Western financial institutions.

I wrote about this last year in March and April not long after the war began. My comments were greeted with skepticism (at best) and extreme criticism (at worse). No matter. I was right then and the evidence since has been overwhelming.

The Russian economy was only down about 3% in 2022 (earlier estimates expected it to fall around 20% or more), and the Russian economy is expected to show modest growth this year versus likely recessions in the U.S. and Europe. Russia and China are far along in developing an interoperative payments and settlement system for international transactions that will replace the SWIFT system that Russia was ejected from.

Actually damaging Russian institutions is extremely difficult because Russia has spent years preparing for just such a financial attack from the United States. Its banks are robust with good liquidity and access to interbank facilities, even without the benefit of SWIFT or Western correspondents.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to destroy the Ukrainian army with missiles from North Korea, drones from Iran and its own massive industrial capacity.

The Only Card the U.S. Can Play

So Ukraine is losing on the battlefield and the U.S.-led sanctions regime against Russia has failed. The only U.S. response is to escalate the conflict.

The escalation of U.S. weaponry provided to Ukraine is stunning. We started with Stinger surface-to-air missiles to shoot down Russian aircraft, and Javelin missiles, which are potent anti-tank weapons (although the British NLAW system being used in Ukraine is apparently better).

Next, we provided the HIMARS, which is a long-range heavy artillery piece with precision-guided shells. Ukraine has used it to good effect, although it seems the Russians have developed means to counter it. Contrary to what the propaganda machine says, the Russians aren’t idiots. In fact, the very head of Ukraine’s military has said that “all military science is located in Russia.”

Anyway, since the delivery of HIMARS, the U.S., the U.K. and Germany have pledged to provide top-of-the-line tanks including the U.S. Abrams tank, the U.K. Challenger 2 and the German Leopard 2. Incidentally, there are unconfirmed reports that some Leopards are now appearing on the battlefield.

Then, without skipping a beat, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy demanded F-16 fighter jets. Biden said no, but he also said no to tanks at first. It’s likely just a matter of time before he approves the F-16s. All of this has been backed up with billions of dollars of intelligence, surveillance and communications systems designed to spot Russian targets and direct the application of U.S. weapons.

That’s to say nothing about the actual presence of NATO forces on the ground in Ukraine. Some sources indicate that as many as 20,000 Polish troops are on the front lines dressed in Ukrainian uniforms, making them foreign mercenaries. U.S. and U.K. forces are also on the ground there not in uniform, which is a violation of the Geneva Conventions.

Of course, this is no secret to the Russians. They recently warned us to withdraw all NATO personnel and equipment from Ukraine. If we don’t, the Russians renewed the warning that they could become legitimate targets.

Still, none of this assistance has been particularly effective. Ukraine is losing the war badly as Russia slowly and methodically wears down Ukrainian forces along a broad front. Russia nearly has the strategically important city of Bakhmut encircled and will probably have it completely cut off before long, trapping 20,000–30,000 Ukrainian soldiers.

The loss of Bakhmut will be a significant defeat for Ukraine, as it will significantly weaken their defense line in the Donbas. They really only have one defense line to fall back to, and it’s notably weaker than the line they’re currently fighting to hold.

If Russia eventually manages to break through that last line, there’s very little between that line and the Dnieper River to stop them.

None of this is an indictment of the Ukrainian military, by the way. They’ve fought hard and bravely, and continue to do so. It’s just that they’re facing a superior force that significantly outnumbers them in tanks, aircraft, artillery and, importantly, ammunition. They’re simply outgunned.

Where’s the Cavalry?

Meanwhile, many of the weapons pledged (including the tanks) have not actually arrived and may not be ready for six months or more. Ukraine could sure use them now! The F-16s in particular are a pipe dream because Ukrainian pilots don’t know how to fly them, and training can take almost a year. It’s possible that NATO pilots could secretly pilot them, but just think of the Russian propaganda victory if they shoot down and capture NATO pilots who aren’t supposed to be flying over Ukraine.

Still, apart from their effectiveness, another question arises. Can the U.S., the U.K. and Germany actually afford to provide these weapons without damaging their own readiness in the event of wars elsewhere?

The fact is Western arsenals have been badly depleted because of the weapons and ammunition provided to Ukraine. The European arsenals were not large to begin with, but even the U.S. supplies dropped into the danger zone. The situation is worse than that because the shortages cannot be made up quickly.

The U.S. has shut down many ammunition factories since the Cold War ended. These can be restarted but full wartime mobilization takes years, not weeks. World War II is a good example. By 1943, the U.S. was producing wartime aircraft at a rate of almost 100,000 planes per year. But in 1941, that number was only 18,000. The Ford Motor Co. basically stopped automobile production and converted its huge River Rouge factory to aircraft production for the duration.

That fivefold increase in fighters and bombers took two years to achieve. It was not done in months. It’s fair to ask if this war is worth it in broad terms. It’s even more pointed to ask if it’s worth jeopardizing U.S. national security by running down vital inventories of weapons to prop up a corrupt oligarchy in Eastern Europe. The American people may discover the hard way that the answer to both questions is no.
Jim Rickards invites comments at feedback@dailyreckoning.com

About Editor, cairnsnews

One of the few patriots left who understands the system and how it has been totally subverted under every citizen's nose. If we can help to turn it around we will, otherwise our children will have nothing. Our investigations show there is no 'government' of the people for the people of Australia. The removal of the Crown from Australian Parliaments, followed by the incorporation of Parliaments aided by the Australia Act 1987 has left us with corporate government with policies not laws, that apply only to members of political parties and the public service. There is no law, other than the Common Law. This fact will be borne out in the near future as numerous legal challenges in place now, come to a head soon.

Posted on March 1, 2023, in General and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 16 Comments.

  1. The NET has a way of surfacing oral histories that were dropped down the memory hole in the last century.

    Here is an interview of a US citizen – a former Ukrainian SS who was interviewed in Detroit 1990. Subject: ‘What was it like growing up in Ukraine during the Soviet Union consolidation of power after the Red Jew Soviet takeover of his country in 1919 – the same year they also invaded Poland.

    As it turns out Fedor Kazan has a clear memory of the Red Terror in Ukraine during the 1920s and 1930s. His recollections confirm that later Allied ‘Holocaust’ propaganda was created as a cover story for the Soviet genocides (of European Whites) in Eastern Europe and Russia.



  2. STOP NATO is going viral all over the world!


  3. Putin cheers as Germans lay roses on blown-up Russian tank amid anti-West protest

    Germany has erupted in anger against the West for arming Ukraine to fight Russia. Thousands of protesting Germans gathered at Moscow’s embassy in Berlin’s capital and offered flowers to a blown-up Russian tank. The T-72 tank appeared in central Berlin on Friday—the first anniversary of the conflict in Ukraine. Activists from The Berlin Story …


  4. Listen to the Russian Karens explain about the enemies, the Nazis, the non-Orthodox ‘sects’. They are as brainwashed as we are.



    Says Jim projecting, “It’s even more pointed to ask if it’s worth jeopardizing U.S. national security by running down vital inventories of weapons to prop up a corrupt oligarchy in Eastern Europe.”

    Says Me, Ukraine is a work in progress; one stage of a generational project to eliminate the White Russians of Latvia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Moldova, Belarus and all the little transfer stations of black market goods and services in between, eg Transnistria, for they are seen by some as couch surfers and squatters.

    So of cause it’s worth it otherwise it wouldn’t be happening.

    Is Jim tunnel blind?

    Jim, imagine you’re of specific Central European blood related beliefs, administering for, should I say controlling a kickback machine, a corrupt US President, having the dirt on his corrupt junkie son and allowing him the teaser of taxpayer funded flights around the world, sounds like Lolita Express, allowing the DoD to fund tens of unlawful offshore bio labs, having the dirt on a corrupt comedian who lost family members fighting for the Red Army in WW2 first language Russian, second English, third pigeon Ukraine, who was sponsored by a corrupt founder of Ukraine’s largest commercial bank, media mogul, Ukrainian oligarch dual citizen of a Middle East land, lived in the world’s largest washing machine, Switzerland, sponsor of neo nasty Azov Battalion and Dnipro Battalion amongst others, a private army now State controlled numbering ~20000 used for easing the Red Army into Eastern Ukraine, what’s 14 thousand dead when your ready fellas, Governor of Dnipropetrovsk, friend of Poroshenko until he removed him as Governor, controlling shareholder of Burisma Holdings, employer of junkie who was reputedly paid 50 grand a month as a board member along with the stepson of a global warming madman lying ex Sec of State who was mad unaware, no none no.

    The corrupt comedian following overseas orders or threats maybe, under duress anyway, is belatedly cleaning up the back yard removing tens of trip hazards most notably fellow corruptee Igor the sea snake Kolomoisky.

    The big question is, will the sea snake be decapitated to protect the junkie father combo, Epsteineskyy or be found “sitting up against a tree” on successfully hanging himself with an extension cord after shooting himself in the chest with a nowhere to be found Smith and Wesson, with a departing note signed ❌, obviously by him, instructing the Lords of the City of London to pirate his billions for the cause, for why have blood related beliefs and death without honour.


  6. ‘Russia will jail critics of the paramilitary Wagner Group.’

    What an excellent idea, – as Wagner recruit most of their manpower from the prisons!

    Prigozin must be chuffed to bits!


  7. Vlad is really cooking with gaz and a proposed new swag of laws. To do ‘holocaust denial’ [whatever that means] but also ‘Russia phobia’ will also send you to jail in the Soviet Union / RF.

    Russia will jail critics of paramilitary Wagner Group


  8. For those in the EU Weimar Republic, Egon von Greyerz offers his usual sound analysis and advice.


    ‘The EU’s collapse will be slow, then suddenly.’


  9. Meanwhile…. “Interest owed on Germany’s public debt has soared from €4 billion ($4.2 billion) in 2021 to €40 billion (over $42 billion) currently, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner revealed on Monday.”

    The EU Weimar Republic being reborn under our noses. Sexual decadence, massive debt, massive inflation, regional conflict, great power tensions… We know where that’s all going, don’t we? Major economic depression followed by war. And then comes the joy of rebuilding, for those who cannot cope with just gloom and doom. There’s always Schwab’s plan and eternal happiness. lol!


  10. The author said – “The U.S. has shut down many ammunition factories since the Cold War ended. These can be restarted but full wartime mobilization takes years, not weeks.”

    That’s likely why Martin Armstrong’s AI program Socrates is forecasting Exercise WWIII kicking off in earnest sometime around 2027 – 2028. That doesn’t mean there won’t be lots of strife and mayhem before that time, just that the REAL party won’t get started until then.

    Just BTW, that suggests that Trump (or anyone else) won’t be successful in arresting the collapse of the American Empire, because that’s where all of this is heading. In case anyone has yet to notice, this time around WE’RE the “bad guys”.

    The author also said – “World War II is a good example.”

    Exercise WWIII will be an even BETTER example.


  11. Jim also has commercial interests. Ed


  12. Rickards provides a very tight assessment of the NATO position in this war. It’s nice to read journalism based on thorough research, knowhow, and solid intuition.

    Although Jim alluded to the necessity for US personnel to be flying aircraft, the principle applies to virtually all promised equipment. The German tank instructions are in German and most other equipment promised requires upkeep and repair on the battlefield that cannot achieved without training.

    As he said, this ain’t gonna happen in weeks or months, but I and many others think this war is going to be over long before then.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. kevmudskipper

    You might like to check this bloke out on Telegram he is pretty switched on about the goings on in the Ukraine . Juan Sinmiedo/Fearless John/Ukra


  14. @


  15. The US are now at panic stations because China is ready to supply weapons to Russia. The secretary of state and the defense secretary are both wearing brown pants! China has 70% of the known rare earth elements which are essential for production of green energy and advance military and space weapons. Some of these weapons systems incorporate Directed Energy Weapons with hypersonic delivery systems and countermeasures are not simple. Russia’s goal has always been to de-nazify and demilitarize Ukraine. The UN Charter specifically deals with actions, for the victors in WW2, to suppress the re-emergence of nazi influence. While Russia is dealing with Ukraine, they are also cleaning out the tunnel systems, deep underground military bases (including biolabs) and supporting their BRICS partners. Ukraine is essential for the globalists as it will be the seat of the New Empire of the One World Government. When the old Khazarian Empire converted to Judaism, they didn’t change their ways, so the Rus and their neighbors invaded and scattered the residents to the East and the West. Now the descendant of the former residents want their Empire Back and Mr Soros and his Open Society Foundation have been very active in setting up a regime based in Kiev. The fact that NATO and the western countries (including Australia) are actively supporting a regime with clear Nazi roots, makes me wonder how they will spin the narrative here on ANZAC Day. I know my Dad and his mates would have more than a few words to say about this betrayal. He and his mates were Aircrew Europe survivors operating out of air force bases in UK, then in France. After they dealt with the V1 and V2 revenge weapons, they saw the horrors of the concentration camps and had the task of dealing with the survivors, the dead and the dying.

    Liked by 3 people

  1. Pingback: Ex-CIA adviser says Ukraine losing badly in war against Russia – altnews.org

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