by HARRY PALMER

We have published stats from the Australian Bureau of Statistics data base so you may make informed decisions as to the credibility of this nations leaders quoting figures to enhance an agenda misleading COVID-19 facts with normal mortality we have presented below. To view more detailed information and relevant graphs click here

When government control by enforcement is initiated from ill researched allegations from billion dollar corporate confederates looking after their bottom line, it is time to stand firm. We the people now must return our voice back into the Australian parliament and stop this political devastation of our nation.

Provisional Mortality Statistics

Provisional deaths data for measuring changes in patterns of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery period Reference periodJan 2020 – Apr 2021 Released 29/07/2021 – Next release 25/08/2021 Previous releases

Key statistics

• 45,407 deaths occurred by 30 April 2021 and were registered by 30 June.
• Counts of deaths were above historical averages for each month of 2021. 
• Age standardised death rates for dementia are lower in 2021 than 2020.

Measuring ‘excess’ deaths

Excess mortality is an epidemiological concept typically defined as the difference between the observed number of deaths in a specified time period and the expected numbers of deaths in that same time period. Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19.

Throughout this report, counts of deaths for 2020 and 2021 are compared to an average number of deaths recorded over the previous 5 years (2015-2019). These average or baseline counts serve as a proxy for the expected number of deaths, so comparisons against baseline counts can provide an indication of excess mortality. The minimum and maximum counts from 2015-19 are also included to provide an indication of the range of previous counts. Minimums and maximums for any given week can be from any of the five years from 2015-19. As mortality during 2020 had periods where deaths were significantly lower than expected, 2020 has not been included in the baseline average. 

Australian deaths by week, 30 December 2019 to 25 April 2021

All-cause deaths certified by a doctor

Tracking the number of doctor certified deaths against historical averages for similar time periods provides an indication of when excess deaths may occur. This is of particular relevance because of the many potential public health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of COVID-19 infections by week in Australia is highlighted alongside total deaths to enable a comparison of the timelines for the pandemic with changes in numbers of deaths. 

• There were 44,407 deaths that occurred between January and April 2021 and were registered by 30 June.
• This is 2,427 deaths (5.6%) more than the 2015-19 average and comparable to 2020.
• There was an average of 378.4 deaths per day between January and April 2021, comparable to 375.9 at the same point in 2020. 

Note: This analysis does not include coroner referred deaths. Any changes in patterns of coroner referral could affect counts of doctor certified deaths. Some conditions have higher coroner referral rates (ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases and to a lesser extent respiratory diseases and diabetes) so counts for those conditions would be more likely to be affected by such changes.

Deaths are presented by counts only. Counts of death do not account for changes in population. See data downloads for weekly standardised death rate calculations. Download

Ischaemic heart disease

Ischaemic heart disease is the leading cause of death in Australia. The category includes acute conditions such as myocardial infarction and chronic conditions such as coronary atherosclerosis.

• 4,166 deaths occurred from ischaemic heart disease between January and April 2021
• This is 341 deaths (7.6%) below the 2015-19 average, comparable to the 4,191 deaths at the same point in 2020.
• Deaths due to ischaemic heart disease have been decreasing over time.

Cerebrovascular diseases

Cerebrovascular diseases refer to a number of conditions such as stroke, cerebral aneurysms and stenosis that affect blood flow and circulation to the brain.

• 2,811 deaths from cerebrovascular diseases (including strokes) occurred between January and April 2021.
• This is 207 deaths (6.9%) below the 2015-19 average, comparable to the 2,828 deaths at the same point in 2020.
• Similar to ischaemic heart disease, deaths from cerebrovascular diseases have been declining over time. 

Respiratory diseases

Respiratory diseases include causes of death such as pneumonia, influenza, and chronic lower respiratory diseases (including emphysema and chronic bronchitis). Deaths due to COVID-19 are not included in this category. COVID-19 deaths are captured using WHO issued emergency codes U07.1 and U07.2 and are not currently grouped with any other diseases, though they are included in the total number of deaths.

• There were 3,824 deaths from respiratory diseases between January and April 2021.
• This is 73 deaths (1.9%) higher than the 2015-19 average, but remains 268 deaths (6.5%) lower than at the same point in 2020.
• The mortality rate for respiratory disease is lower in 2021 (10.1 per 100,000 people) compared to the same period in 2020 (11.3 per 100,000 people).

Chronic lower respiratory diseases

Chronic lower respiratory diseases include chronic bronchitis, emphysema, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Chronic lower respiratory diseases are a sub-group of respiratory diseases (J00-J99).

• There were 2,159 deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases between January and April 2021.
• This is 82 deaths (3.9%) higher than the 2015-19 average, but remains 80 deaths (3.6%) lower than at the same point in 2020.

Influenza and pneumonia

Influenza and pneumonia are acute respiratory diseases often grouped together when compiling leading causes of death. They are two distinct diseases: influenza is a viral infection, while pneumonia can be caused by a virus, bacteria or fungi. Influenza is a common cause of pneumonia.

Influenza deaths are highly seasonal and most commonly occur in Australia between the months of May and September. The timing, length and severity of the influenza season varies considerably from year to year. For this reason, influenza deaths have been excluded from the graph below so pneumonia deaths can be tracked separately.

Influenza and pneumonia are a subset of respiratory diseases (J00-J99).

• There were 556 deaths due to influenza and pneumonia recorded between January and April 2021. All deaths in this category were due to pneumonia. 
• This is 184 deaths (24.9%) lower than the 2015-19 average, and 275 deaths (33.1%) lower than at the same point in 2020.

Influenza

• There has not been a death certified due to influenza since late July 2020. 

Pneumonia

• The number of deaths due to pneumonia has been largely below average since late April 2020.
• Between January and April 2021, deaths due to pneumonia were 130 (19.0%) below the 2015-19 average and 235 deaths (29.7%) below the same point in 2020.

Cancer

Cancer includes malignant neoplasms encompassing carcinomas, sarcomas and lymph and blood cancers.

• 15,836 deaths from cancer occurred between January and April 2021.
• This is 780 deaths (5.1%) higher than the 2015-19 average, but comparable to the 15,733 deaths at the same point in 2020.

Diabetes

Diabetes includes both Type 1 diabetes and Type 2 diabetes. The majority of diabetes deaths are from Type 2 diabetes.

• 1,456 deaths from diabetes occurred between January and April 2021.
• This is 113 deaths (8.4%) higher than the 2015-19 average, but remains 101 deaths (6.5%) lower than at the same point in 2020.
• Counts of deaths due to diabetes were above historical averages in March (by 24.3%) and April (by 15.8%). 

Dementia, including Alzheimer disease

Dementia, including Alzheimer disease, is the second leading cause of death in Australia and counts of deaths from dementia have increased steadily over the past 20 years. This increase should be taken into consideration when comparing 2020 and 2021 counts against baseline averages.

• 4,749 deaths from dementia, including Alzheimer disease, occurred between January and April 2021.
• This is 742 deaths (18.5%) higher than the 2015-19 average, but remains 65 deaths (1.4%) lower than at the same point in 2020.

Timeliness and completeness of data

Each death registration in the national mortality dataset has 3 dates:

• The date on which the death occurred.
• The date on which the death was registered with the jurisdictional Registry of Births Deaths and Marriages (RBDM).
• The date on which the death was lodged with the ABS.
   

The time between the occurrence of a death and registration can vary, although in general, deaths certified by a doctor are registered sooner. Coroner certified deaths undergo extensive investigative processes which can delay registration times, and for this reason they are excluded from the provisional mortality reports.

When looking to measure change over time, the completeness of data for the most recent period is important. When data are received each month by the ABS, the lag between the date of death and date of registration means that only 40-50% of reported registrations are of deaths that occurred in the month being reported. The remainder are deaths that occurred in earlier months. After a second month of reporting, approximately 95% of doctor certified registrations have been received. This is considered sufficiently complete to enable meaningful comparison with historical counts, noting that the level of completeness will be higher for the start of any given month than the end of that month.

This pattern of registration and reporting is highlighted in the table below, which also shows the slight variation in reporting timelines by cause of death. This should be considered when comparing 2021 data to the 2015-2019 baseline data.

Video of government stats